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The last couple of weeks have seen encouraging signs for demand in the European charter market. Forward looking demand data shows promising signs for July and August travel.
The below chart shows total trip demand in Avinode aggregated for each departure month, by trip requested date, compared to last year. Demand for travel in June (green) is currently 34% below what it was at last year and improving. July (orange) is most promising. It is currently 20% below its last year figure but closing the gap rapidly. August (black) is slowly improving at 23% below its last year position, whilst demand for September remains flat.
These figures give hope that easing travel restrictions and concerns about flying commercial could result in a healthier European charter market over the key summer months. Of course, there are differences within the continent. Of the major markets, Germany shows the healthiest trends. Demand from the UK has been negatively impacted by the quarantine implemented on 8th June.
However, demand for travel in July is positive – perhaps indicating hope that the quarantine will be removed at the first opportunity at the end of June, and a sign that the recovery should continue as soon as it is. Demand for travel from Russia is recovering, particularly for domestic flights and to Spain, Cyprus and Montenegro. Portugal appears to be the arrival country faring best, with arrivals into neighbouring Spain improving markedly from July also.
The picture in the US is slightly different. The chart below shows the number of trips by requested date for each departure month, for US domestic travel. Demand for travel in June (green) is surging, July (orange) is recovering strongly and August (black) is beginning to appear too.
Multiple sources (FlightAware, TRAQPak, WingX) report US flown movements down “only” around 30% year over year for early June, supporting the narrative of a recovering US market. Avinode’s demand data suggests that the recovery is set to continue as we progress through the summer.
The high year-over-year increases here could also indicate an increased number of enquiries for travel from customers new to private charter, giving credence to the theory that commercial flyers want to travel private instead. All regions are seeing positive trends, but Florida continues to lead the way.
Head of Insight, Avinode Group
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